Abstract
The aim of this paper is to design an approach to evaluate the expected efficiency and performance of future airport infrastructure. First, an airport sampling method to select similar airports is developed based on socioeconomic and operational airport variables that are summarized in a proxy variable; second, the ARIMA-GARCH-Bootstrap method is applied to forecast the selected outputs (PAX and ATMS) whilst the selected inputs (Cities, Gates, Runaways, Airport Size, Pax carriers, and Num. of employees) remain constant; and third, the VRS-OO and the CRS-OO DEA models are implemented to evaluate the efficiency and performance of the airports in the current and future years. The proposed approach is used to evaluate the future airport infrastructure of the new Mexico City Airport against 19 representative worldwide airport hubs. The proposed approach is applied to analyze the Mexico City Airport multi-airport system infrastructure as a case study. The results show that this multi-airport system requires more airside infrastructure that must be added by the new Mexico City Airport, airlines should operate aircrafts with more capacity to serve more PAX per ATM, and airlines must open new connections at the new Mexico City Airport to increase the expected efficiency and performance of this multi-airport system.
